No Hope, No Change
Bush vs. Clinton. There is nothing the American people are looking forward to the most than to avoid this lineup for the 2016 presidential election. Not only would the nomination of both these dynastic candidates speak very badly about the current state of American democracy and political leadership, but also each of them as individual candidates have characteristic deficiencies that are hard to overcome.
On one hand you have Hillary Clinton, whose figure is linked to a considerable number of controversial actions (Benghazi, “lost” emails, voting for war in Iraq, etc.) and whose genuineness is tarnished by the Claire Underwood image she exudes of doing whatever it takes to be on top. However, Democratic voters don’t seem to be giving much thought to these issues. The are giving her a considerable advantage over any other potential Democratic candidate running for the nomination, even as many inside her own party are desperately looking to put their hopes in someone else.
The fact of the matter is that Hillary Clinton has got the name and the money to easily win the nomination, and should do so unless some of the lesser-known candidates (Martin O’Malley, Jim Webb, and recently Lincoln Chafee, a Republican-turned-Democrat and former governor of Rhode Island) pull the 2008 Obama stunt and gain traction after the Iowa caucus. I have left out Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, considering their more factional positions would likely not give them any chance to even run for the Democratic spot.
On the other side, it gets more interesting. The uncontested “invisible front-runner” for the moment is Jeb Bush, mainly due to his early and aggressive fund-raising which has positioned a super-PAC of his to be on the road for a $100 million collection. I also forgot to mention that his father and his brother were both Presidents, but that is probably more damaging than helpful. Nevertheless, the GOP primary field is very diverse in terms of factions, opinions and programs, as well as in each candidates’ ways to squeak their way to the nomination, as The New York Times pointed out recently.
It seems like the question to be asked is: “Who can challenge Bush in terms of party and popular support, fundraising and rhetoric?” There seems to be an upper tier at the moment, composed by Scott Walker (who hasn’t yet declared a candidacy but most likely will), Marco Rubio and Rand Paul. From the most mainstream alternatives, Walker and Rubio definitely look like the most all-encompassing choices. The first has managed to stay in power in Wisconsin after seriously doing battle with public sector unions in a traditionally blue state, which has garnered him nationwide recognition among conservatives. The latter is a rising star that has already delivered an official rebuttal to the State of the Union address, and has been Jeb Bush’s protege since his days in the Florida State Assembly. Both appeal to the party’s elites, and both have great fundraising power.
Still, both have serious deficiencies in relation to other likely candidates. Rubio’s profile pretty much overlaps Bush’s profile, without the recognizable last name or the national experience. Walker’s record in Wisconsin might appeal to conservatives, but it will most likely scare away independents or undecided voters in a Walker vs. Clinton run-off. Rand Paul is already off to a bad start, having faced tough questions from reporters during his first week as an official candidate. He has also lost some support of his libertarian base due to his flip-flopping in issues, such as cutting the defense budget, that could have earned him a great deal of support with independents and undecided voters.
It seems like the only one that can defeat Jeb Bush for the primary spot is Jeb Bush himself. The American people will be expecting to see a hard-fought fight for both nominations, yet, for the moment, it seems like the election will be as expected. If this comes to be, and no party manages to nominate anyone outside both political dynasties, the 2016 election could become the embodiment of the stale political two-party system, and the urgent need to reform it. One thing does seem to be clear: the next president will not represent a great change, will not be a great leader, and will end up being disliked by a majority of the American people. Same ‘ol, same ‘ol…
